Lake Erie Conditions Statement – Updated High Lake Level Outlook for fall 2021

Haldimand Lakeshore and Grand River below Dunnville

This message is to provide an update on the increased potential for lakeshore flooding and erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline this fall. As of August 19, Lake Erie’s level was 52 cm above the long-term average for this time of the year and 22 cm lower than the record-high set in 2019. Water levels of Lake Erie are expected to remain above average but below seasonal record highs over the next six months. Water levels remain high in all of the Great Lakes, with the exception of Lake Ontario, which remains above average.

While the lake’s level is slightly lower than last year at this time, there remains a heightened risk of shoreline flooding, as well as wave-driven erosion associated with wind events on the lake due to these high static levels. This risk is expected to increase due to the increased frequency of lake surge events between October and May.

Haldimand County flood co-ordinators and local police are advised that there is a continued higher than normal potential for shoreline flooding and shore erosion through late 2021. The public is reminded to exercise caution around the shoreline, as well as nearby rivers and streams during storm events. The higher than normal lake level coupled with wave action can impact and cause failure of shoreline erosion works. Private land owners should prepare their properties as best as possible, and monitor shoreline erosion works on their properties. Lake conditions and forecasts are monitored closely and flood messages will be issued as necessary based on Lake level forecasts.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry updated a Provincial Flood Watch for Lake Erie based on high static lake level on August 9, 2021, which indicates:

• Dry conditions continued in the Lake Superior basin in July, while conditions were wetter than average across the other lakes.
• Lake Erie’s level was 47 cm above average, and 32 cm lower than the record-high July 2019 monthly mean.
• Lake Erie rose 10 cm (2nd largest rise), while on average the level declines 4 cm in July.
• Lake Erie’s beginning-of-August level was 52 cm above average and 26 cm lower than the record-high set at the beginning of August in 2019.
• Water levels of Lake Erie are expected to remain above average but below seasonal record highs over the next six months.

More information

• For more information on preparing for floods, please visit the Flooding section of the GRCA website.
• More information on the flood warning system is available on the GRCA website.
• Receive GRCA flood messages by e-mail by subscribing through the GRCA website.
• Follow GRCA flood messages on Twitter at grca_flood_msg.
• For more information on flows, weather and reservoir conditions see the River Data section of the GRCA website.

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Media contacts:

Cam Linwood, GRCA Supervisor, Strategic Communications
Phone 519-621-2763 x2251  |  Email clinwood@grandriver.ca 

Lisa Stocco, GRCA Manager, Strategic Communications and Environmental Education
Phone 519-621-2763 x2316  |  Email lstocco@grandriver.ca