Flood Messages

The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) storm surge model forecast for the eastern end of Lake Erie is indicating a rise in lake levels to just below the threshold for flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline in Haldimand County.  

Sustained westerly winds over Lake Erie with speeds up to 60 km/hr and gusts up to 70 km/hr are forecast to start  during the early morning hours of Friday, December 19, 2025 and continue into the evening. 

The weather system crossing the watershed is bringing above freezing temperatures and approximately 15 mm of rainfall tonight, resulting in increased river flows throughout the Grand River watershed. 

No significant flooding is expected with this event; however, river flows in local waterways will be higher than normal for this time of year, increasing the risk in low-lying areas typically prone to flooding.

The Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) is concerned about the use of frozen natural water bodies for on-ice activities such as skating and ice fishing. Recent cold temperatures and early-season snowfall have resulted in the formation of thin ice on local rivers, reservoirs, ponds, and lakes across the watershed. While ice may appear to be forming earlier than in previous years, ice conditions remain highly unstable, unpredictable, and unsafe for any type of recreation.

It is important to note that river systems, reservoirs, and water control structures experience fluctuating water levels and variable flows that prevent stable ice formation. While colder temperatures allow for some ice formation, daily changes in temperature, wind, precipitation and underwater currents greatly affect ice conditions. In many areas, snow cover can also insulate the ice surface, slowing the freezing process and creating hidden weak spots.