GRCA Flood Message #1 – High Lake Erie Level – Flood Warning

The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) storm surge model forecast for the eastern end of Lake Erie is indicating a rise in lake levels to above the threshold of Lake Erie Flood Zone 1. The passage of a strong low-pressure system is expected to bring high winds to Lake Erie on Monday. 

Sustained Southwesterly winds over Lake Erie with gusts up to 110 km/hr are forecast to start developing on morning of Monday, December 29, 2025 and continue into the evening. 

The MNR forecast is predicting the following in the vicinity of Port Colborne:

Lake Erie current elevation at Port Colborne:      173.84 m (IGLD 1985)

Lake Erie estimated to peak at:                            175.70 m (IGLD 1985), excluding waves

Lake Erie Expected time of peak:                      Monday, December 29, 2025, early-afternoon

Flood Zone Area of Impact:                               Zone 1 flood zone along Lake Erie shoreline

The Haldimand County Flood Coordinator should warn affected residents and businesses in Lake Erie Flood Zone 1 along the Grand River downstream of Dunnville Dam in the community of Port Maitland, and along the lakeshore and to monitor roads along the lakeshore and implement closures as necessary.

The public is reminded to stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline due to the potential for strong waves and elevated water levels, and to follow the direction of local flood coordinators and emergency officials. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas. Forecasts are being closely monitored. This message is in effect until 12:00 p.m. on Tuesday, December 30, 2025 and will be updated as needed.

The public is advised to familiarize themselves with flood warning zone mapping available on Haldimand County’s website. Measured lake levels and MNRF forecasts are available on the GRCA website at www.grandriver.ca under the river data section. For questions regarding this message, contact the GRCA Duty Officer at 519-621-2761.

More information

• For more information on flows, weather and reservoir conditions see the River Data section of the GRCA website.
• For more information on Lake Erie levels, see the Lake Erie page of the GRCA website.
• Safety information for parents and children is available on the Water Safety page of the GRCA website.
• More information on the flood warning system is available on the GRCA website.
• Receive GRCA flood messages by e-mail by subscribing through the GRCA website.
• Follow GRCA flood messages on Twitter at grca_flood_msg.
• More information about how the GRCA manages floods is available in the Flooding section of the website.

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Media Contacts:

Serena Catania, GRCA Supervisor of Communications and Marketing
Phone (519) 621-2763 x2240  |  Email scatania@grandriver.ca