GRCA Flood Message #3 - Combined Flood Watch and Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook

The Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) is issuing a Flood Watch for the Nith River and lower Grand River. The Flood Watch and Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook issued on Tuesday, January 6, remain in effect.

Weather forecast

Several fast-moving low-pressure systems are moving through Southern Ontario starting on Thursday, January 8, bringing warm temperatures and precipitation to the Grand River watershed. On Friday, January 9, this system is expected to bring 10-15 mm of rain to the area, along with warm temperatures rising to low double digits above freezing. Temperatures are forecast to drop close to freezing for Saturday, January 10, as another low-pressure system moves through and brings a wintery mix of ice pellets and snow. The snowpack throughout the watershed is at or above normal for this time of year. Recent GRCA snow measurements captured 30-80 mm of equivalent water content. The warm temperatures combined with rain are expected to lead to snowmelt and runoff throughout the watershed.

Flood Watch for the Nith River in New Hamburg and Ayr

The GRCA is issuing a Flood Watch message for New Hamburg and Ayr due to expected runoff from potential snowmelt and rain on Thursday, January 8, and Friday, January 9. Higher flows in local waterways combined with runoff from this event will increase the risk of flooding in low-lying areas typically prone to flooding. Additionally, as ice breaks up and moves through the river there is a risk of ice jam formation which may rapidly increase water levels and lead to local flooding. Municipal flood coordinators in New Hamburg and Ayr should monitor conditions and take necessary actions.

Flood Watch for the Grand River in Brantford remains in effect and Flood Watch issued for Brant County, Six Nations, Cayuga, Caledonia and Dunnville

Due to river ice, Grand River water levels through Brantford remain elevated. There is a continued risk of ice jam formation leading to a rise in water levels throughout the lower Grand River as ice breaks up and moves through the system following the warm weather on Thursday, January 8, and Friday, January 9. Elevated flows resulting from increased snowmelt and rain runoff may further increase the risk of flooding. Municipal flood coordinators in Brantford, Brant County, Six Nations and Haldimand County are advised to take necessary actions and monitor conditions, particularly in areas that are known to be at risk for ice jams.

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook

The Flood Watch for Brantford and Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook message issued on January 6, 2026, for the remainder of the Grand River watershed remains in effect.

Warm temperatures combined with rain expected this Friday, January 9, will result in runoff and may cause ice on frozen water bodies and river systems to break up. As ice moves through the rivers there is the risk of ice-jams in slow-moving reaches of watercourses which may lead to localized flooding along with increased water levels from runoff. Municipal flood coordinators are advised to monitor conditions and locations where ice jams are known to occur.

GRCA Reservoirs

The major reservoirs at Belwood, Conestogo, Guelph, Luther, Woolwich, Laurel, and Shade’s Mills will continue to be operated to help manage runoff and reduce downstream flooding.

Stay Safe

High flows and unstable ice conditions will increase the safety risk around rivers and streams throughout the watershed. The public is encouraged to exercise extreme caution around local waterways. Parents are reminded to keep their children and pets away from watercourses. The public is reminded to stay off ice-covered waterbodies, due to unsafe conditions. 

River conditions and forecasts are being monitored closely, and any additional flood messages will be issued as needed.

This message will remain in effect until 12 p.m. on Monday, January 12, 2026. 

More information

• For more information on flows, weather and reservoir conditions see the River Data section of the GRCA website.
• More information on the flood warning system is available on the GRCA website.
• Receive GRCA flood messages by e-mail by subscribing through the GRCA website.
• Follow GRCA flood messages on X at grca_flood_msg.
• More information about how the GRCA’s role in managing floods is available in the Flooding section of the website.
• Copies of the GRCA’s River Safety Rules booklet is available by contacting the GRCA Administration Centre

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Media Contacts:

Lisa Stocco, GRCA Director of Strategic Communications and Environmental Education
Phone 519-621-2763 x2316  |  Email lstocco@grandriver.ca

Serena Catania, GRCA Supervisor of Communications and Marketing
Phone 519-621-2763 x2240  |  Email scatania@grandriver.ca