GRCA Flood Message #5 – Flood Warning

The Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) is issuing a Flood Warning message for New Hamburg and Ayr. The Combined Flood Watches and Watershed Conditions Statements - Flood Outlook issued on January 6 and 8, remain in effect.

Weather forecast

Several fast-moving low-pressure systems are moving through Southern Ontario which have brought warm temperatures and precipitation to the Grand River watershed. On Friday, January 9, 2026, this system brought up to 10 mm of rain to the area, along with temperatures rising to low double digits above freezing. Temperatures are dropping and will remain close to freezing for Saturday, January 10, as another low-pressure system moves through and brings a wintery mix of ice pellets and snow. The snowpack throughout the watershed is at or above normal for this time of year. Recent GRCA snow measurements captured 30-80 mm of equivalent water content. The warm temperatures combined with rain caused snowmelt and runoff throughout the watershed.

Flood Warning (Action) Message for New Hamburg

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 1 in New Hamburg during the morning of Saturday, January 10. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of Wilmot have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information about flood warning zones.

Flood Warning (Action) Message for Ayr

River flows are expected to reach Flood Warning Zone 1 in Ayr overnight on Saturday, January 10 and into the early morning of Sunday, January 11. Municipal flood coordinators in the Township of North Dumfries have been advised to notify affected properties and monitor conditions. Residents are encouraged to refer to the guide on the GRCA’s website for information about flood warning zones.

Flood Watches for the Grand River in Brantford, Brant County, Six Nations, Cayuga, Caledonia and Dunnville remain in effect

The Flood Watches for the Grand River in Brant County, Six Nations, Cayuga, Caledonia and Dunnville issued on January 8 remain in effect, as well as the Flood Watch issued for Brantford on January 6. Due to river ice, Grand River water levels through Brantford remain elevated. There is a continued risk of ice jam formation leading to a rise in water levels throughout the lower Grand River as ice breaks up and moves through the system. Elevated flows resulting from increased snowmelt and rain runoff may further increase the risk of flooding. Municipal flood coordinators in Brantford, Brant County, Six Nations and Haldimand County are advised to take necessary actions and monitor conditions, particularly in areas that are known to be at risk for ice jams.

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook

Along with the Flood Watches, the Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook message issued on January 6, for the remainder of the Grand River watershed remains in effect.

As ice moves through the rivers there is the risk of ice-jams in slow-moving reaches of watercourses which may lead to localized flooding along with increased water levels from runoff. Municipal flood coordinators are advised to monitor conditions and locations where ice jams are known to occur.

GRCA Reservoirs

The major reservoirs at Belwood, Conestogo, Guelph, Luther, Woolwich, Laurel, and Shade’s Mills are at normal levels for this time of year and have storage available. They will continue to be operated to help manage runoff and reduce downstream flooding.

Stay safe 

High flows and unstable ice conditions increase the safety risk around rivers and streams throughout the watershed. The public is encouraged to exercise extreme caution around local waterways. Parents are reminded to keep their children and pets away from watercourses. The public is reminded to stay off ice-covered waterbodies, due to unsafe conditions.

River conditions and forecasts are being monitored closely, and any additional flood messages will be issued as needed.

This message will remain in effect until 12 p.m. on Monday, January 12, 2026. 

More information

• For more information on flows, weather and reservoir conditions see the River Data section of the GRCA website.
• More information on the flood warning system is available on the GRCA website.
• Receive GRCA flood messages by e-mail by subscribing through the GRCA website.
• Follow GRCA flood messages on X at grca_flood_msg.
• More information about how the GRCA’s role in managing floods is available in the Flooding section of the website.
• Copies of the GRCA’s River Safety Rules booklet is available by contacting the GRCA Administration Centre.

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Media Contacts:

Lisa Stocco, GRCA Director of Strategic Communications and Environmental Education
Phone 519-621-2763 x2316  |  Email lstocco@grandriver.ca